Why Tinubu Will Likely Lose The 2027 Elections

Bola Ahmed Tinubu has crossed all political Ts and dotted all strategic "I"s required to win an election. He has consolidated State power through conversion of governors, installation of cronies in key election machinery positions, and elimination of loopholes opposition can take advantage of.

However just like a business SWOT analysis where you can control weaknesses but not Threats, the Iran-US war will prove to be the major decider of the coming elections. The Iran war has resulted in a paradox, the government is cashing in on oil revenue due to the closing of the strait but the people are suffering due to rising inflation creating a huge chasm between the economic position of the government and the

realities of the people. That is to say, the people are suffering but the government installed to govern them is enjoying massively. More so, the fact that some superpowers such as the US itself, China and Russia are greatly profiting from the war has reduced the chances of this war coming to an end quickly inorder to restore normalcy. With the way world economy is going, and the fact that Nigeria has nothing to fall back on, the situation will likely escalate to the point where hardship will be so severe that the people will revolt right around the election circle. This will be the final nail in the coffin.

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