Why Ogun State needs a hard antitrust shield for olokola seaport and Eba offshore oil
History is brutally honest: monopolies are never accidental. They are built when governments confuse “big investors” with “public interest,” and when power is allowed to concentrate faster than regulation can respond.
Ogun State now stands at such a moment.
With a seaport coming onstream and offshore oil drilling ready in Eba, Ogun Waterside, the state is on the brink of a transformational economic leap. But transformation cuts both ways. If Ogun fails to act deliberately, it risks creating a private empire one that controls ports, oil, logistics, pricing, and political influence in one sweep. Nigeria has seen this movie before. The ending is never good for the public.
This is not an argument against investment. It is an argument against unchecked dominance.
The Rockefeller Lesson Nigeria Should Not Ignore
John D. Rockefeller did not conquer America through oil alone. He conquered it by controlling the entire system production, storage, transport, pricing, and access to markets. By the time regulators woke up, Standard Oil had already bent the economy and politics to its will.
Nigeria’s version of this risk is even more dangerous. In a federal system with weak antitrust enforcement and high political capture, a single corporate actor controlling a seaport and an oil field in the same coastal corridor would not just dominate a market it would dominate policy choices.
Ports decide who trades. Oil decides who earns. Logistics decides who survives.
Hand all three to one corporate group directly or through subsidiaries and Ogun would be outsourcing its economic sovereignty.
Growth Without Guardrails Is Not Development
Supporters of mega-investors often argue that scale brings efficiency, jobs, and speed. That is true at first. But without competition rules, scale quickly becomes leverage: leverage over suppliers, over communities, and eventually over the state itself.
Once a dominant player controls evacuation routes, storage facilities, and access to export terminals, competitors do not fail because they are inefficient. They fail because they are locked out. Prices stop reflecting markets and start reflecting monopoly power. Communities become hosts, not stakeholders. Governments become regulators in name only.
Ogun must not wait until this happens to act. Antitrust law works best before dominance hardens, not after.
What Ogun Must Do Now
The solution is neither radical nor anti-business. It is standard practice in mature economies and resource-sensitive regions:
• Structural separation: No company or corporate group should control offshore oil and seaport infrastructure in Ogun simultaneously no matter how they structure subsidiaries or special-purpose vehicles.
• Ownership caps and cross-ownership bans to prevent silent consolidation.
• A Golden Share for Ogun State, giving the government veto power over mergers, asset transfers, and monopolistic expansion.
• Non-exclusive port and pipeline access, with regulated, transparent tariffs.
• A strong, independent coastal market regulator with breakup powers.
• Host community equity, not token compensation, so local people have real stakes.
• Absolute transparency of beneficial ownership to prevent political capture.
These are not obstacles to investment. They are rules of trust signals that Ogun welcomes capital but will not surrender control.
The Choice Before Ogun
Eba and Ogun Waterside could become a model of balanced coastal development multiple investors, competitive markets, strong state revenues, and empowered communities. Or they could become another cautionary tale where one dominant interest grows so powerful that regulation becomes theoretical.
Once monopoly power sets in, reversing it is costly, political, and often violent to the economy. Prevention is cheaper. Prevention is wiser.
Ogun still has the advantage of timing. The port is coming. The oil is coming. The rules can come first.
If Ogun gets this right, it will not just protect itself it will set a precedent Nigeria desperately needs: that development is not about how big an investor is, but about how fairly power is distributed.
Ogun should choose wisely.
The Alternative.
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