Demola Olarewaju has been one of the biggest PDP media warriors of the past 20 years. He contested for the post of publicity secretary of the Lagos branch of the PDP a few years ago and although he had massive support online, he did not win the election.
He criticised people that were assistants to APC government officials and he declared that he could never be an assistant to anybody. However, sometime around 2023 he became the new media assistant to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.
'DemolaOlarewaju @DemolaRewaju
Peter Obi’s move to ADC is a historical pivot, repeatedly predicted by some of us - seeing the sun at midday is however not a sign of great eyesight, it is rather the ability to see the sun at midnight that proves our imagined reality as enlightened.
It is with that enlightened imagination that I here predict what may play out in ADC, firstly to prevent Obidients from getting too emotionally invested in their imagined reality, secondly to help Atikulates remain accommodating of certain excesses but thirdly, in the hope that a unique set of far-thinking young people will figure how to plug in and make things happen.
Disadvantage is that APC folks may read this and guess the future but the irresistible human natural tendency to exaggerate darkness at 3am and assume the sun will never rise again is always there, and any politically savvy APC person already knows know this is actually the right play.
These are “my thoughts” - not representative of anyone or anything affiliated to me.
The basis for the formation of ADC is directly from 2023: Atiku and Obi polled more votes combined than Tinubu, simple.
Albeit there are three power blocs in the ADC formation: the Atiku bloc formerly sabotaged within the PDP, the CPC/Buhari bloc sidelined and hounded out of APC and the Obi bloc infiltrated out of LP. The two election-tested blocs are the Atiku and Obi blocs, representing a combined voting force of roughly 12 million, but the CPC bloc is also a major steal from the APC and an addition to an imminent voter outsurge from the North. The best candidacy will harness both Atiku and Obi while utilising the Northern electoral base of the CPC bloc along with their institutional power/knowledge.
But politicians must hedge their bets: what if Obi is swayed by the argument of “turn of the South”, even though Tinubu is not a Northerner? What if the CPC bloc decides to press forward with Amaechi as Atiku’s running mate? This is why the bets are being hedged:
An Obi will insist he’s running for President so that he won’t be edged out by the CPC bloc, the CPC bloc will keep Amaechi in play so that they can step in if Obi doesn’t align, Atiku will stay open to running with anyone in case Obi is held too hostage by his base. Politicians will politick and it’s good to confuse APC at this point, even up till the venue of the primaries.
Atiku stepping down and endorsing Obi or vice versa will not work: Obi lost his PU to Soludo/APGA despite endorsing a different candidate for Governor. If Atiku steps down today and endorses Obi, he may lose his PU in Adamawa for the first time ever in history; we need both men together on the ballot in a clear power-sharing arrangement that will produce a strong President and a strong VP - AA is no stranger to this kind of ‘strong VP’ arrangement from his time as VP from 99 to 2007.
H.E. Peter Obi has the most motivated political base in Nigeria currently, yet he is not a politician who has the skill of patience enough to build that movement into a structure. The 2023 southern wave that partly drove his campaign now falls redundant with a Tinubu in Aso Rock and that man is strongly uniting the Souths behind himself through the Governors.
H.E. Atiku Abubakar is organisationally and institutionally strong - not only is he able to rally his own troops across many states, he can also pull enough renegades from the APC still - won 12 states in the last election, 7 of them were APC states. With the CPC bloc behind him, his candidacy is even stronger.
Picking an Atiku at the expense of Obi is as weak a ticket as picking an Obi at the expense of an Atiku. Even if one endorses the other, only the presence of both on a joint ticket stands a clear chance.
The call now therefore even as we welcome Obi to an alliance he has been part of from the beginning, is for Obidients and Atikulates to sheathe swords and make this happen.
It is after all, our future and it is not safe at all under Tinubu.
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