Nigeria’s Dangote refinery supplied 32 million liters/day to the Nigerian market equivalent to 200,000 barrels per day (b/d), 36% less than its projected output for December, the country’s downstream regulator (NMDPRA) said Jan. 15.
This surge represents a critical turning point, as the refinery now satisfies approximately 60-70% of Nigeria’s total domestic gasoline demand from a single facility.
Since starting up its operations in 2024, the 650,000 b/d Dangote plant has been the only domestic refinery in Nigeria to consistently produce gasoline, the main fuel type used in the African economic powerhouse.
Breaking the Import Dependency
For decades, Nigeria relied on “Direct Sale Direct Purchase” (DSDP) swaps to meet its fuel needs. The 200,000 b/d milestone effectively renders large-scale gasoline imports from Northwest Europe obsolete.
By injecting 200,000 b/d directly into the domestic market via sea-borne shuttles to Atlas Cove and truck loading at the Lekki hub, the refinery has slashed the “dead time” associated with importing fuel from the ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) region.
Analysts estimate that this level of domestic production is saving the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) approximately $1.2 billion monthly in retail fuel import costs.
The sustained 200,000 b/d output is creating a “supply cushion” that has stabilized pump prices across major Nigerian cities.
If Dangote continues to scale toward its 650,000 bpd nameplate capacity, Nigeria is expected to become a net exporter of gasoline to the West African sub-region (Ghana, Togo, and Benin) by mid-2026.
The NNPC Limited has reportedly reduced its external import orders for Q1 2026 by 85%, relying almost exclusively on the Lekki-based refinery for national energy security.
Supply Chain Transformation
The 200,000 b/d volume has also tested and proven Nigeria’s domestic distribution infrastructure:
The refinery’s gantry is now handling over 3,000 trucks daily, leading to calls for the urgent rehabilitation of the Lekki-Epe expressway and increased use of coastal vessels to reach the Calabar and Port Harcourt depots.
With local production dominating, the “Dangote Price” has become the de facto benchmark for the Nigerian market, decoupling local pump prices from the volatile Atlantic Basin import premiums.
Waltersmith Modular Refinery to Start in January
As the Nigerian energy landscape enters a period of rapid industrialization, the Waltersmith Petroman Oil Limited modular refinery is set to commence its highly anticipated Phase 2 operations in January 2026.
This expansion marks a critical step in the company’s evolution from a niche producer to a major regional energy supplier.
The January 2026 restart represents the commissioning of the refinery’s second phase, which is set to double its output. The refinery began operations in 2020 with a 5,000 bpd capacity, with the expansion to double capacity to 10,000 bpd.
The Nigerian Midstream & Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) granted a License to Construct (LTC) for Phase 2 in late 2024.
Unlike Phase 1, which focused primarily on diesel (AGO), naphtha, and heavy fuel oil, the 2026 expansion includes specialized units for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS/Gasoline) and Dual Purpose Kerosene (DPK).
Waltersmith plans to expand further to a total capacity of 40,000 to 50,000 bpd by adding more modular units.
They are working to secure sufficient crude oil supply, including from their own upstream operations and nearby sources.
The expansion is a key part of Nigeria’s strategy to reduce reliance on imported petroleum products by building local refining capacity.
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