Vladimir Putin will not intervene in his ally Iran’s war with Israel, in order to appease Donald Trump, Moscow insiders have revealed.
They said that Putin did not want to provoke the US president, to avoid a tougher line from the White House on Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The Telegraph spoke to four current Russian officials and diplomats, as well as several retired officials. They all spoke on condition of anonymity.
The Kremlin had calculated that Mr Trump would not risk starting a war with Iran, they said, but was re-evaluating its appraisal of the mercurial, America First president after the US air strikes on the Islamic republic.
On Monday, Putin hosted Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, in Moscow two days after Mr Trump sent bomber planes to strike Iran’s three main nuclear sites.
The Russian president told Mr Araghchi in televised comments: “The absolutely unprovoked aggression against Iran has no basis and no justification.”
Putin may have condemned the US strikes when hosting the chief diplomat of a key ally in the war with Ukraine, but away from the cameras the Russians are far more cautious.
The bombing of Iran “broke the pattern of thinking in Moscow, where officials had assumed Trump wouldn’t so readily abandon his self-proclaimed image as a peacemaker”, a serving Russian diplomat told The Telegraph.
“For us, first Israel’s decisive strike on Iran and the US’s active involvement was a cold shower and a game changer. Now the situation looks dangerous to us,” said another envoy.
Putin would prefer to appease Mr Trump so his illegal war in Ukraine can continue, despite the two leaders ostensibly holding peace talks over the conflict.
One Russian diplomat told The Telegraph: “Some officials believe that if we stay flexible and avoid pressing the Iran issue too hard, we might get some relief from the United States on the Ukraine front.
“They hope the White House will understand, that there will be no serious new sanctions, and that Trump will tolerate the continuation of the special military operation as it is now.”
Another diplomat said: “Our relationship with the US is already complicated because of Ukraine, and there is already some frustration and irritation from Trump about our stance.”
Avoiding risk
“Adding a Middle East disagreement on top of that is seen as an excessive political risk we would rather avoid,” a different diplomat added.
It is unlikely that Putin would jeopardise his “romantic relationship” with Mr Trump for the sake of preserving ties with the ayatollahs, Arkady Dubnov, an independent Russian political analyst, said.
The war in Ukraine continues to drain Moscow’s military, economic, political and diplomatic resources, sharply limiting its capacity to act elsewhere, including in a conflict where it has significant economic stakes and in a region where it has historically wielded influence.
Since Mr Trump entered the White House, Russia has routinely offered itself as a mediator in talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, according to a government official familiar with foreign policy planning.
Before the recent escalation, Mr Trump had not rejected the idea outright. But he has since come out against it in strong terms.
Putin’s offer to mediate in the conflict between Israel and Iran was swiftly dismissed by both Israel, which has a large Russian-speaking community, and the United States.
Russia might have once acted as a guarantor, but today it lacks the leverage even to influence Tehran directly.
A former senior Kremlin official said: “Negotiating only works when you have something to bargain with. We can hardly influence Iran’s position right now. We simply do not have the tools.
“And if we are talking about surrender, what kind of terms can we possibly secure for that country?”
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